By Zou himfr
"The automobile development restructuring and revitalization of planning" recommended in 2009 to China's automobile goods produced and sales efforts more than 10 million, three-year midpoint expansion rate of 10 out of 100, it is needed to realise this objective is not not hard to realise in 2009 is 10% expansion , there still survive some variables. In 2008, the countrywide automobile goods produced and sales to 9,323,600, and 9,363,300, weighed against to the past, advancing goods produced and sales foundation, it is needed to realise 10% for three following years of high expansion, the contest is not small.
Growth bend is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations?
Ministry of data commerce and released facts and numbers display that in March, the National Automobile output 1,095,400, 35.59% development in string of connections (in February than in March), an boost of 5.55%; sales 1,109,800, ring than the 34.10 per hundred development, an boost of 5.01%.
Data in March to the automobile market a shot in the arm: first, sales of more than a quarter of the U.S. market, China has become the world's largest automobile consumer market; Second, a single month to return to one million steps; Third, an increase of the past six months the the highest point.
However, we should also see there are many problems: First, sales growth exceeded 5% only, and not high; the second, "the world" is only temporary, full-year 2009 may be difficult to surpass the United States; the third , since the second half of 2008, an increase of down too, the current growth curve is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations? It is difficult to say now; Fourth, rapid growth in March, the root causes of policy driven, consumption tax, purchase tax cut, and the fuel tax reform, a series of policies such as automobile countryside played a role in propping up the market; Fifth, differences in consumption structure and obviously, in March sales of 772,400 passenger cars, up 10.26 percent, but sales of commercial vehicles was 337,400 yuan, down 5.29%; the sixth, but the increase in automobile production and sales companies half of the profits are negative growth, that there is still the issue of cost control, financial crisis, the impact on the real economy is still deepening.
1-3 months in 2009, automobile production and sales 2,567,600 and 2,678,800, an increase of only 1.91% and 3.88%, reduced from the current inventory, and some models sold out of the market situation, 2009 years to achieve the goal of 10% is likely to achieve, but the pressure is not small and can only be cautiously optimistic.
In 2008, the nationwide automobile output and sales fallen year-on-year boost of 16.87 and 15.21 percentage points, in which vehicle sales fallen 20 and 16 percentage points down turn in the magnitude of the year, and the first quarter of this year sales development of only 1. 91% and 3.88%, thus, if the warmer automobile market is the key.
Small displacement and the function of engine vehicles can be propelled to the rural areas long?
As a result of the consumption tax, purchase tax cut, small displacement car sales rising, but also there are two problems: First, what displacement is the "small displacement", the upper limit of the small number of emission? Second, small displacement vehicles (even the general concept of small displacement) of the virtual image is still hot, the market share was not high.
"The automobile industry restructuring and revitalization of planning" provides that from 2009 January 20 to December 31, and below 1.6 liters of displacement by 5% of passenger vehicle purchase tax levied; At the same time, the next three years, " displacement of 1.5 liters of the following passenger market share above 40%, of which a small displacement below 1.0 liters car market share above 15% "; car for the countryside is the displacement of 1.3 liters for the following cars.
So, what is "small displacement" national car is not clearly defined, the industry did not conclusive, 1.6 liters, 1.5 liters, 1.3 liters or 1.0 liters? Policy of ambiguity at a loss for some enterprises, investment in R & D indecisive.
One is 1.0 liters and under is the actual type of tiny displacement motor vehicles, if so, this part of the market share types in item very tiny, not very sultry but in addition the future of preferential guidelines to farther can not only cover this part of model.
The first quarter, SAIC-GM-Wuling sales 246,293, up 34.5 percent, this growth was mainly due to the high consumption tax, and vehicle purchase tax reduction policy support to rural areas, and SAIC-GM-Wuling is based on micro-off based company, is a car to the countryside the most direct beneficiaries of the policy, therefore, SAIC-GM-Wuling, high-growth does not mean that a small displacement of the "golden period" on the up.
1-3 months, sales of motor vehicles out the apex 10 brand labels are: F3, Excelle, Yuet move, Jetta, QQ, Santana, Elantra, Xiali, Accord, Corolla, which can be observed, 1.3 or the following small number types actually.
At present, the auto guideline support to countryside environs are chiefly wares and micro-light commuter motor vehicles out; China's auto market is the "golden output" is still 1.6 to 2.4 liters; by the fundamental thought of the consequence of use, 1.3 liters emissions and trade the following motor vehicle types have yet to be upgraded; the consequence of the charge itself is still bigger than the consequence of oil prices. The long time span, small-displacement motor vehicle to the surrounding territories and the hauling effect of these two environs may not have looked frontwards to less than ideal.
The obstacle is that the prevailing advance chiefly by tiny displacement with the vehicle moved ahead to the surrounding territories, and this is where the worry.
Decline in export profits decline
In 2008, the nationwide automobile trade items 684,900, accounting for the household automobile output 7.36 per hundred, an boost of 67.7 percentage points decline; the first quarter of 2009, nationwide automobile trade items 61,000 yuan, down 62.06 %.
This means that trade items development in down turn in 2008, founded on the year 2009, trade items are expected to fall the more serious.
On the one hand, China's auto trade overseas chiefly condensed concurrently in the "Asia" territory, the location stayed at than the migraine itself, narrower; On the other hand, in actual by the exchange rate is subject to the consequence of fiscal critical purpose, the worldwide motor vehicle market shrinking speedily, trade overseas descent exacerbated by the prevailing heading down movement continues.
In augmentation, though China's auto yield inexpensive, but the worth of word-of-mouth and brand label photograph still wants to be enhanced, and this is a long-term can be effective. To summation up, the circumstances was very sombre automobile exports.
According to China's Automobile Association statistics, this year, 1-2 months, large-scale automobile enterprises the principle enterprise wages of 320.413 billion yuan, up 9.42 out of 100 descent, the yield amounted to 9.879 billion yuan, up 50 out of 100 decline.
2008, 19 key enterprises in the automobile commerce (group) on the general down turn in earnings, while the much quicker down turn in 2009. Decline in earnings for numerous reasons: On the one hand, 2008 is mostly due to increasing charges, proceeded to down turn in 2009 that cost command in enterprises is still a large problem; On the other hand, illustrate the consequences of market farther intensified, businesses may not desire to cost the market unchanging force to smaller charges, but gaze at the long-term tendency will continue; the most basic cause is the restricted dimensions of enterprise, productivity is not high, thin output is not accomplished and the grade of precision administration is not high.
Policy to support the face desires to be amplified
2009, a optimistic element for China's auto market more than the opposing elements, the complete time spans of the radiant site in the world will carry on to be, but is presently looking at many tests, if the next three years, "Paul 10" the need for guideline support was farther expanded.
2009, production efficiency and management of even the highest levels of Toyota's profit is expected to have substantially lower, we can see how severe the situation, domestic enterprises are facing "the growth of trouble" and the dual pressures of external challenges.
Policy support is not protectionism, the state procurement is not inclined to own emblem is "the buy of household goods in a" replica.
First, the motor vehicle should be farther augmented to countryside environs, attention could be bestowed a farther 50 million to support the use of tiny displacement motor vehicles, in spite of of their own brand labels and connection endeavour brand labels, so as to avert conflicts.
Second, the acquisition of tax could be further reduced below 1.3 liters and the vehicle could be considered tax-free; from 1.3 to 1.8 liters could be considered to 3%; from 1.8 to 2.4 liters could be considered down to 5 %. Will be less tax revenue, but the automotive consumer and other consumer-driven, obviously to promote the role of domestic demand.
Third, the abolition of travel tax to clean up a further charge of secondary roads to prevent disguised charges.
Fourth, the thoroughfare to recoup the advance major and interest of advances after the nation, to finish the charges.
Fifth, to tempo up the in the household market into line with global oil costs, and to change the prevailing in the household oil charge get higher in global oil costs went up speedily, the in the household oil costs in global oil costs slowly declined down the position quo of the blame.
Sixth, to farther intensify in the new vitality, new technologies in support of efforts to advance the autonomy of the confidential motor vehicle R & D support.
Seventh, automobile exports increased support, the appropriate vehicle to raise the export tax rebate rate, the establishment of a special incentive fund to enhance export services platform.
Eighth, the norms and the promotion of motor vehicle financial development, and appropriate relaxation rate car loans and down payment, at the same time the strict management of personal credit records.
IX, regulate second-hand motor vehicle market, to support new-generation motor vehicle use, pay for employed motor vehicles to extend the guideline to support the new covering can be broadened to 20 million motor vehicles in the environs, but not constricted to redemption of light-weight wares, for instance micro-off. - 21396
